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Old 01/03/2013, 11:25 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grabber5.0 View Post
I don't think the market is too full, but I do think there can only be maybe 3, 4 at the very most, successful platforms. I wonder though if any other OS can establish a great degree of success until one of the two big players starts to fade for some reason. I definitely don't think all of these new players will last more than a year or so (not saying none of them will, but they will not all make it that far) [...]
I tend to agree that there's a limiting factor, but i'd put the number at 5...

I think of all of the current players at this moment in time, only Apple has "natural" market success... Google and Microsoft have poured untold millions into their respective platforms, to get them off the ground...

Android being developed as an antidote to Apple, it didn't and still doesn't have a 100% intuitive/together feel (and to some degree this also applies to ecosystem management), like generic medication vs name brand... or a "store brand" product... also suffering from some fragmentation... All in all, it's like Google, manufacturers and Verizon have banded together to offer an acceptable alternative to the iPhone, after the fact... but neither is terribly in love with the other, they are just together out of necessity... and this is kind of their weak link IMHO, and all other weaknesses of Android arise out of this one...

Apple can and does drop the ball every once in a while, the most "shining" example being Apple Maps with its melting freeways and "ghost cities". Also, in some ways it no longer tries to out-do the competition, instead relying on "being Apple" as a marketing point. They have a small chance of fading enough to let someone else get a small foothold.

Everyone else is not yet established, so they are quite a bit more susceptible to the market forces, except FirefoxOS, which is almost guaranteed success, as a fresh and welcome alternative to Android.

Windows appeals mostly to enterprise and perhaps to some casual users, with its direct competition being the latest BB offering.


I think the last category, (besides the established "kings" and enterprise) is "hacker favorite", with Debian-based Maemo->Meego->Sailfish and Ubuntu Mobile...

Of all these, webOS falls squarely between the Apple and the "hacker favorite", a somewhat unusual position, good, but also complicating things, "proprietary" but open source, with no real corporate support... maintained by Homebrew but "owned" by HP....



Everyone is digging their heels into the ground, trying to gain even a marginal advantage, while webOS is in freefall, not even trying to compete until there's a modicum of stability. If they write us off completely, and then we come back with a bang, we still get a shot at being in the "hacker favorite" category and luring independent buyers as well as former fans....
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