Originally Posted by SharonW:
Well, I believe that people are NOT considering all the facts at hand, just the ONE missing, i.e. exact Pre sales. The first facts we have are what Palm sold in the prior two quarters. In Q3 2009, they sold 480,000 Palm OS phones, in Q4 2009 they sold 353,000 Palm OS and and some in-channel Pres estimated between 70,000-130,000, so call it in between at 100,000 leaving only 253,000 OS phones. That's a quarter over quarter drop of almost 50% for old OS phones!!! Now since they did say they are still seeing big declines in the sales of their old OS phones, one can assume that they sold even LESS than 253,000 OS phones in Q1 2010.
The only extrapolation needed at this point is what is the current rate of decline in the old OS line. It isn't hard to get to GS's estimate of 670,000 if old OS declines were still maintaining a roughly 50% decline. Moreover, if you add back in the 100,000 Pres sold in the previous quarter to GS's Q1 figure you'd have total Pre sales of 770,000.
I agree with your numbers.
I was thinking along the same lines, 250K phones in the last quarter. And 800K plus in the current quarter.
The last quarter had PALM Centro, Treo Pro, 800W and 700P.
700P was on Verizon and SPRINT while the 800W was on SPRINT.
Both of these models are now discontinued.
Plus Centro sales are slowing down ( how much ?? I don't know).
Assuming that they had 100K sales drop from older phones.
The net is 820K - 150K ,
Me thinks Pre sold close to 700K.
Which is why Jon Rubinstein was all smiles. He said "it is selling well".
While 700K is small compared to the iPhones are BBs , its 700K people you can write APPS for :-).
Assuming you can sell a .99 cents app, you are going to make 70% of the 700K.
Thats a decent number. And it will only go upwards to couple of millions in a year ( Don't forget Verizon will be getting Pre and ATT might get Pixie).